On 'Vinayagar Chathurthi', a Hindu festival, a few days ago, I was travelling in a town bus in Bangalore. There was the usual hullabaloo that some self-styled chauvinists are known for during these Hindu processions. (Arguably, the celebration does not aim at praising Ganesha; instead, at instigating others through praising Ganesha; we will save that topic for another day).
I stood(rarely do we get a seat) travelling, lurking outside for a glimpse of the different 'costumes' that Ganesh wore that day. As a bus-stop approached, there was a small crowd that looked like an 'after-theatre' group. A man around 30 with his son, I believe, a beautiful four-or-five year old with fair face and Godly countenance, and his hair flowing down his nape, boarded the bus. The beard and the pyjama of the man, the white religious cap over the head of the infant, and their shibboleth, spoke of their identity.
My habit of trying to grab the attention of children with a smile, and then search my pocket for a Paris 'mittai' or an Ecklairs or a mango bite, continued. Only this time, it was empty. But the toddler also never turned towards me. The man stood besides me with the child in his arms.
After about five minutes, still the boisterous celebrations on, the man would bend, just as I have been, for a glimpse of the God and in a low tone, but clear enough for me to hear, asked his son "Ganesh dekha?"(Did you see Ganesha?) pointing towards an embellished Ganesh idol.
Stop. Stop.
This was new to me. But my ear letting me down was not. So I was more attentive now. Again, I heard the same words "Ganesh dekha?". The stripling would say a canorous 'Haan'. After a couple of stops, they were gone and I was on my way.
I would, for a long time after that incident, think of the two words. Why did he say that? Was it aimed at me who had ash on his forehead? Did he want to tell "others" that he was teaching his son secularism? Did he want to "show" that there were truly secular people in his community also?
Whatever the answer, the fact is, there happened something small, the importance of which cannot be emphasized more in our country, and today's world in general.
Many a time, I have been in his place trying to show to a couple of people around me what I believe - that God, if exists, does so as one, but in different "costumes". This show, not always(for I've got my own plans to make), and invariably during a bus travel, would involve a gentle brush down my face with my palms as the bus would pass a Mosque, or a cross on my chest for a Church.
So, I would presume I did understand the idea behind the two words. Sensing that I was a liberal might have encouraged the man to ask that question. That might have been the confidence he saw in me!! And he took it a lot further!! The result is buttressed belief in human goodness, a sense of camaraderie, and most importantly, hope - hope for a better future.
Treaties signed after years of red-tape between nation-states are not the only measures to build confidence. CBMs can also be built at the common man's level that can make a positive, rock-solid, and ever-lasting impact against a widely held tenebrous belief that proclaims one's religion as the only religion; one's religion as the only religion that is capable of salvation, capable of taking you to His feet, capable of healing your ills, capable of making you wealthy, and capable of what-not!!!
These CBMs, at the grass-roots level, not necessarily for religious harmony alone, are more powerful than the signed ones. And we are the virtual signatories to it. What this takes is nothing but a smile, an accomodating mindset and an understanding of love.
The choice is available for everyone.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Draw the red line
There are so many things we get worried about. Even though we have so many to be happy over, we never stop to worry about something or the other in our day-to-day lives. To say that we are all worry-adicts may not be completely false. So, do we have a remedy for this? That is, if at all we want and wish we could have one.
Right from childhood, we are running after studies, work, extra curriculars, etc.
And success or failure in each of these affects us hard emotionally.
Not only that. We are worried over each and every small activity in our everyday lives.
When we miss the bus to school or office, we are angry with ourselves. When we miss the alarm, miss the special class, and wake up at 10, we bury our heads in shame at not being able to even control the time we wake up. When we can't manage to adhere to a schedule one day, we are cross with ourselves.
This is apart from the resulting sadness after our boss lambasts us for poor (or so he thought) workmanship; or the seething anger after the spouse would not accede to your request for whatever.
So there never is an end to this worry-mania. Or is it?
When I started thinking about this(after worrying over one such inconsequential matter), I thought let me draw a line on this. Let me write out exactly for what reasons I am going to be worried/ sad/ too bothered from now on, for everything will pass. I'm going to control that. And that will not control me.
To be sure, we will be upset at minor failures. But I think we can quickly and consciously think over it and be back at our cheerful best.
Here is a typical example:
Do we feel happy when we reach work in time? No? Why? Isn't that a good thing? Perhaps it is normal to reach office in time. And that's the reason we don't celebrate when that happens.
Now, why do we feel angry/ sad when we reach office late? Anger/ sadness is just another emotion like happiness is.
When we don't feel an emotion(called happiness) for what has been achieved, why do we have to feel an emotion(called sadness) for what was not achieved?
If you say that that is not normal and that's the reason you get angry, then we move on a little further - isn't erring a human trait? Yes, it is. To err is human. Therefore, to err is normal. So if we don't feel happy for something normal, we need not feel sad for something normal.
Conclusion: if you feel happy for what was achieved, you may rightfully feel aggrieved if it was not. And, and this is the bottomline, if you don't feel happy for what's achieved, you do not have the right to worry yourself.
Draw the red line.
Right from childhood, we are running after studies, work, extra curriculars, etc.
And success or failure in each of these affects us hard emotionally.
Not only that. We are worried over each and every small activity in our everyday lives.
When we miss the bus to school or office, we are angry with ourselves. When we miss the alarm, miss the special class, and wake up at 10, we bury our heads in shame at not being able to even control the time we wake up. When we can't manage to adhere to a schedule one day, we are cross with ourselves.
This is apart from the resulting sadness after our boss lambasts us for poor (or so he thought) workmanship; or the seething anger after the spouse would not accede to your request for whatever.
So there never is an end to this worry-mania. Or is it?
When I started thinking about this(after worrying over one such inconsequential matter), I thought let me draw a line on this. Let me write out exactly for what reasons I am going to be worried/ sad/ too bothered from now on, for everything will pass. I'm going to control that. And that will not control me.
To be sure, we will be upset at minor failures. But I think we can quickly and consciously think over it and be back at our cheerful best.
Here is a typical example:
Do we feel happy when we reach work in time? No? Why? Isn't that a good thing? Perhaps it is normal to reach office in time. And that's the reason we don't celebrate when that happens.
Now, why do we feel angry/ sad when we reach office late? Anger/ sadness is just another emotion like happiness is.
When we don't feel an emotion(called happiness) for what has been achieved, why do we have to feel an emotion(called sadness) for what was not achieved?
If you say that that is not normal and that's the reason you get angry, then we move on a little further - isn't erring a human trait? Yes, it is. To err is human. Therefore, to err is normal. So if we don't feel happy for something normal, we need not feel sad for something normal.
Conclusion: if you feel happy for what was achieved, you may rightfully feel aggrieved if it was not. And, and this is the bottomline, if you don't feel happy for what's achieved, you do not have the right to worry yourself.
Draw the red line.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Financial crisis as on 13th Nov. 2008
In all probability, the crisis will lead some developed countries(already Germany is one) to a recession. The picture is, slowly but surely, getting murkier.
Corporate India's September quarter results have been poor. They have reduced their revenue forecasts for the next couple of quarters. There are red flags all over after Intel announced revenue forecast cuts in the past couple of days. And more is expected in this direction. But huge layoffs have still not been planned. Touch wood!! This is apart from the effects of the US treasury's U-turn on swallowing bad assets.
So stock indices could go down further. Sensex might breach 8k and stay at those levels briefly. So I guess there's still time for bottom-fishing.
Ok, now to the solutions!!
Since the fallout of the crisis last month, many solutions have been doing the rounds. Some of these have already been tried - interest cuts, providing loans to banks, etc. Just to be sure, many economists never seriously expected these to stop the freefall. But there were some other solutions which, proponent economists argued, had to be the way. And these were interesting solutions.
They argued for direct manouveres - invest directly in the economy. These measures will result in putting more money in the hands of the people, the consumer. That in turn will lead to increased spending that could possibly revitalise the economy.
How is this achieved? Through increased spending by the governments.
In what ways? Building local infrastructure, capacity building in PSUs(mainly manufacturing industries), etc.
This solution has got a taker in the form of a 'dragon'.
Last week, China announced that it will be investing almost 600 billion dollars over the next two years to soften, if not negate, the effects of the slowdown. With its stupendous record at implementing policy decisions, the move will certainly bear fruit.
What can this do to the global economy?
First of all, it's a move that will catch the attention of the world. And then many countries could follow, although the results for individual countries will vary. If more countries follow this, there is a very good chance that the slowdown will be short lived. It will be difficult, though, to extricate some developed economies from this quagmire. But India and many other countries will benefit with similar measures.
So even as times get difficult for some countries, for some like ours, it may not be as bad as we are now fearing it to be. But then we will have to wait and see how things play out.
To sum up, tougher times lie ahead for all of us.
But developing economies could recover faster.
Corporate India's September quarter results have been poor. They have reduced their revenue forecasts for the next couple of quarters. There are red flags all over after Intel announced revenue forecast cuts in the past couple of days. And more is expected in this direction. But huge layoffs have still not been planned. Touch wood!! This is apart from the effects of the US treasury's U-turn on swallowing bad assets.
So stock indices could go down further. Sensex might breach 8k and stay at those levels briefly. So I guess there's still time for bottom-fishing.
Ok, now to the solutions!!
Since the fallout of the crisis last month, many solutions have been doing the rounds. Some of these have already been tried - interest cuts, providing loans to banks, etc. Just to be sure, many economists never seriously expected these to stop the freefall. But there were some other solutions which, proponent economists argued, had to be the way. And these were interesting solutions.
They argued for direct manouveres - invest directly in the economy. These measures will result in putting more money in the hands of the people, the consumer. That in turn will lead to increased spending that could possibly revitalise the economy.
How is this achieved? Through increased spending by the governments.
In what ways? Building local infrastructure, capacity building in PSUs(mainly manufacturing industries), etc.
This solution has got a taker in the form of a 'dragon'.
Last week, China announced that it will be investing almost 600 billion dollars over the next two years to soften, if not negate, the effects of the slowdown. With its stupendous record at implementing policy decisions, the move will certainly bear fruit.
What can this do to the global economy?
First of all, it's a move that will catch the attention of the world. And then many countries could follow, although the results for individual countries will vary. If more countries follow this, there is a very good chance that the slowdown will be short lived. It will be difficult, though, to extricate some developed economies from this quagmire. But India and many other countries will benefit with similar measures.
So even as times get difficult for some countries, for some like ours, it may not be as bad as we are now fearing it to be. But then we will have to wait and see how things play out.
To sum up, tougher times lie ahead for all of us.
But developing economies could recover faster.
Financial crisis as on 21st Oct 2008
It's just early days yet. No one can aver how severe or how long this downslide/ recession will continue. For example, when US goes into a recession(officially they've still not), most people believe it will go on for two years. This is mainly based on the fact that the last recession lasted barely two years. But Paul Krugmann, this year's Nobel laureate for Economic sciences, argues that it could last more than that this time around. That's because the last time around, after the IT bubble burst, the US was able to come out of it mainly because of the mortgages market. They just managed to pull themselves out before two years. But this time around, from the magnitude(huge) of loss of the sub-prime crisis(remember that this market is alone worth $15 trillion. if you want, read it again. It is fifteen trillion dollars. Just for comparison sake, India's GDP is ONE trillion dollars), he says no other sector could quickly salvage the US economy.
So it's just early days yet. As to its impact on the Indian economy, definitely there will be an impact as around 40% of software exports to the US are to the BFSI sector. But the "shivering" sensation in the Indian economic scenario is not to be seen yet. But again, it is early days. The SWITCH companies(Satyam, Wipro, Infy, TCS, Cognisant, HCL) have reduced their fresher intake and many others have frozen hiring of experienced hands. But still the general mood is not gloomy. So we can take some heart and plan what we could possibly do - as your 10 points say.
Loans:
Already, to hold the markets from tumbling down, the RBI and Government have taken quite a few steps of which some(CRR, repo rate) will directly affect the rates at which loans are disbursed by banks to the common man. So we can expect the loan rates to go further down...which translates into lesser cost for owning a house or a car. But then again our salaries could be lesser. But the point is that, one should not decide not to take a loan. Flexibility is the best policy when it comes to managing money.
Investments:
Warren Buffett buys when everyone sells. In January this year, the Sensex was climbing at nearly 21K. Who might have had the audacity to predict that it will fall below 10000 in 10 months? Isn't it such a mouth-watering oppurtunity to buy now? If there was ever a BEST time to buy, it is NOW. That's because it will not fall below 9K and the only direction it can go is skywards.
So it's just early days yet. As to its impact on the Indian economy, definitely there will be an impact as around 40% of software exports to the US are to the BFSI sector. But the "shivering" sensation in the Indian economic scenario is not to be seen yet. But again, it is early days. The SWITCH companies(Satyam, Wipro, Infy, TCS, Cognisant, HCL) have reduced their fresher intake and many others have frozen hiring of experienced hands. But still the general mood is not gloomy. So we can take some heart and plan what we could possibly do - as your 10 points say.
Loans:
Already, to hold the markets from tumbling down, the RBI and Government have taken quite a few steps of which some(CRR, repo rate) will directly affect the rates at which loans are disbursed by banks to the common man. So we can expect the loan rates to go further down...which translates into lesser cost for owning a house or a car. But then again our salaries could be lesser. But the point is that, one should not decide not to take a loan. Flexibility is the best policy when it comes to managing money.
Investments:
Warren Buffett buys when everyone sells. In January this year, the Sensex was climbing at nearly 21K. Who might have had the audacity to predict that it will fall below 10000 in 10 months? Isn't it such a mouth-watering oppurtunity to buy now? If there was ever a BEST time to buy, it is NOW. That's because it will not fall below 9K and the only direction it can go is skywards.
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